Developing an intuition for Bayes with Wordle

Thinking about causality

What you should know

The investigator, the jury, and the judge

Fisher and experiments

John Snow and natural experiments

Double blind studies

Control variables (ANCOVA)

Judea Pearl: Problems with control variables

Moderation, mediation, and lurking variables

Simpson's paradox

Challenge: Moderation, mediation, or a third variable

Solution: Moderation, mediation, or a third variable

Turing, Enigma, and CAPTCHA

Enigma and uncertainty

Wordle and conditional probability

Wordle, bans, and bits

Wordle and Bayes' theorem

Challenge: Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem

Solution: Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem

Contrasting frequentist statistics and Bayesian statistics

Bayesian T-Test with JASP

Google Optimize

Bayes and rare events

Challenge: JASP

Solution: JASP

Sewell Wright

Introducing path analysis and SEM

SEM example: Intention

Myths about SEM

Latent variables in SEM

Finding direction of causality with SEM (PSAT)

Judea Pearl and the causal revolution

Downloading BayesiaLab and resources

Introducing BayesiaLab: Hair and eye color

Introduction to causal modeling with Bayesian networks

Bayesian Networks: Black Swan case study

Taking causality further